Turkish output of spun yarns is forecast to rise by more than 40% over the next decade, according to World Markets for Spun Yarns: Forecasts to 2010, a new research report from Textiles Intelligence. This rise is considerably faster than the 25% increase which has been forecast for global production of spun yarns over the next ten years.

Turkey is already the world’s sixth largest producer of spun yarns, and the third biggest outside Asia -- behind the USA and Brazil. In 2000 its spinning mills produced almost 1.3 mn tons of spun yarns, some 4.5% of the world total. By 2010, according to the Report, Turkish spun yarn production is expected to hit 1.8 mn tons. The increase will be fuelled by big increases in raw cotton production as Turkey’s ten-year south east Anatolia irrigation project comes to fruition in 2005. In addition, new investments in synthetic fibre capacity will come on stream.

Much of the additional spun yarn production will be used in downstream manufacturing operations within Turkey itself. Since the early 1980s, Turkey has been adding value to its cotton crop by extending its production chain into textile and apparel manufacturing. Indeed, Turkey is now the EU’s biggest supplier of textiles in value terms and its second biggest supplier of clothing. However, Turkey is also a major exporter of spun yarns to markets in East European countries as well as to southern countries in Western Europe -- especially Italy, Portugal and Spain.

Turkey’s gains will be at the expense of the industry in Western Europe. Between 1990 and 2000 West European spun yarn production fell by 18% to 2.44 mn tons, with the cotton sector suffering particularly badly. The main cause has been growing imports of textiles and apparel from countries in Eastern Europe and Asia -- as well as from Turkey. By 2010 production in Western Europe could be down by a further 18% as imports of textiles and apparel continue to erode the spinning industry’s main markets. Within Western Europe, the only significant growth over the next ten years will be in Italy. Worst hit will be Germany, although declines are also likely in Greece, Portugal and Spain.

Eastern Europe has fared even worse than Western Europe over the last ten years. Since 1990 spun yarn output has fallen by over 50%, to about 560,000 tons, as the region’s economies have had to grapple with severe economic problems and the task of finding new markets following the collapse of communism. But production looks set to recover. Eastern Europe benefits from low labour costs, and is a growing source of apparel for Western markets. Also, restructuring in the textile industry has been extensive and is continuing. Production will increase as the spinning sector becomes increasingly competitive, and as investors from outside the region -- including Asian countries -- establish new yarn and fabric manufacturing plants close to apparel manufacturing centres.

One consolation for West European spinners is that their products will continue to be in demand for high quality applications as apparel production is relocated under outward processing arrangements to factories in Eastern Europe and North Africa. Also, labour costs are becoming less important as spinning machinery becomes more automated. This should help the sector to retain some of its competitive edge, especially in the manufacture of higher value products.

However, the industry suffers from the fact that it still has to compete with subsidised producers in other parts of the world. Also, Western Europe’s problem of growing textile and apparel imports will become worse in 2005 and beyond when quotas restricting imports into Western Europe and the USA are eliminated under World Trade Organisation rules. By contrast, access by West European spinners to potential export markets in developing countries will continue to be restricted by high tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

For the West European textile industry as a whole, the Report offers more hope for the future. Although spun yarn production looks set to fall, filament yarn fabrics and non-spun products such as nonwovens and fillings could more than make up for the loss. Overall, West European textile production is forecast to grow as markets for technical products, such as geotextiles, and functional textiles for flame retardant garments and sportswear offer better prospects.