After ten years of consistent growth, manufacturers in emerging-market economies will need to compete harder with each other to maintain their share in Western clothing markets, according to Global Apparel Sourcing: Options for the Future, a report published by Textiles Intelligence. Clothing companies in East and South Asia, Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and Central America are likely to do best over the next few years, says the report. But the real winners will be those who improve their professionalism - and not necessarily those with the lowest wage costs.

The rapid move from domestic apparel production to the use of factories in lower-wage countries is slowing down. The major markets - in the USA, the EU and Japan - imported US$62 bn worth of clothing in 1990. By 2000, the value of imports had more than doubled to US$142 bn - mostly from lower-wage countries such as China, Turkey and Mexico. But, according to the report, that growth is unlikely to be sustained.

During the 1990s, clothing manufacturers in emerging-market economies struggled to produce enough goods to satisfy demand from Western customers. But those same manufacturers will now have to work hard to find and maintain customers in the more competitive global market which will emerge as a result of the elimination of quotas in 2005.

In the future, it is doubtful that Western customers will seek out countries which merely offer the lowest rage rates. Increasingly, Western buyers will also look for quick response, high quality production standards and improved levels of efficiency. During the 1990s there were huge increases in clothing sales from Turkey, South Korea and Mexico even though wage levels in these countries were significantly higher than those in Indonesia or Bangladesh.

Countries with the lowest wage rates do not always offer the lowest overall costs. Transport costs in a country with a poor infrastructure, for example, are likely to be significantly higher than those in a more developed economy, particularly if factories are located in regions far from shipping ports or airports. Other important factors which may affect production costs include energy prices and the efficiency and age of machinery.